By Adam Hewison
Politics as usual
Last week, the standout story was the disastrous jobs report. As this week unfolds, we are faced with more problems such as the debt ceiling and the total lack of cooperation between the Democrats and the Republicans. It seems as though both parties are firmly entrenched in their own party lines and are failing to see just what it’s doing to the country.
We have talked about this before, and the fact that the politicians both in Europe and here in the United States really don’t want to face the truth has created the current mess over the last 20-30 years. It is always same old story of “kick the can down the road” and let somebody else take care of it.
Well, it’s showtime or should I say it’s a showdown now! We need to get serious about getting this right in this country. I believe that we got into this together and now we should get out of it together.
Let’s see what’s happening in the markets.
S&P 500: +75. The resistance level we discussed all last week was enough to turn this market back down. The symmetry of the S&P is striking and should not be ignored as we could be making a right shoulder of a much larger head and shoulders formation. However, it should not be ignored that the Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode. Look for support to come into this market around the 1300 level.
Silver: +90. Silver reversed course and hit the top of the Donchian trading channel and also moved out of an overbought territory. Our Trade Triangle technology is longer-term trend positive. Intermediate term traders should now be long this market. We still believe that silver is building in major energy base to go higher.
Gold: +65. Like silver, gold is at the top of its Donchian trading channel and this was enough to bring pressure on this market. We continue to believe that gold is building a long term energy field to go much higher later in the year. Long-term trends with the Trade Triangles are positive, while intermediate term trends are neutral.
Crude Oil: -80. Profit-taking and liquidation in the crude oil market is making this market pullback into what could be a very interesting area. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement brings crude oil to $93.30 for the August contract. We expect that this level should offer sufficient support for this market. Overall the Trade Triangles continue to reflect a negative trend.
The Dollar Index: +70. This index rallied just enough to trigger our intermediate term Trade Triangles, which in turn put us in the neutral camp for this market. The longer term trend for the dollar index is still negative based on our Trade Triangle technology. Resistance remains between 76.35 and support at 74.00.
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index: -80. This index is back to the midpoint of the Donchian trade channel and has just moved out of an overbought situation. We expect that we will see more backing and filling in this market before it starts to move higher. Look for support at 335 and again at 330. Resistance starts at 345 up to 347.
[Ed. Note: Adam Hewison is the president, chief executive officer, and a founder of INO.com, Inc. He is also the author of two highly-acclaimed guides to the forex markets: International Monetary Report and Right on the Money, the Definitive Guide to Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates. Sign up for his FREE email Trading Course by clicking here now..]